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20 years ago, the Indian stock market like A shares 20 years ago
Rose over 20 times, what did you do right?
December 10, 2023 Wilxin Investment Consultation Research Center
(Text) Yang Yijun, chief analyst
Operation refer to the public account: Yang Yijun Gold and Financial Investment Yangyijun1616
Recently, the Indian stock market has performed screens, which has increased by more than 20 years.Looking at the A shares, the above certificate index is an example. In 2000, it had reached more than 2,000 points.In the early 20 years since then, the A shares are completely different from the Mumbai index:
India and Mumbai have increased more than 20 times in 20 years, corresponding to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index … double the increase!
In 1990, India and India’s GDP levels were 360.9 billion U.S. dollars and US $ 321 billion, which was roughly at the same level.But by 2022, China and India’s GDP were US $ 17.56 trillion and US $ 3.39 trillion, and India’s GDP was more than five times that of India.From 1990 to 2022, India’s GDP increased by about 9 times, India increased 47 times, and the United States increased by more than 3 times.Therefore, the Indian stock market can grow cattle, and the Indian stock market cannot be. It is not the reason why India’s economic development is not as good as India.
The chief economist of a certain institution said that the currency depreciation and inflation caused by the great rise in currency supply should not be ignored.It stated that since 1991, Indian currency supply has risen 93 times, and the Indian stock index has risen 66 times. Therefore, the Indian stock index has risen at least half of the currency depreciation and inflation.It further stated that since 2012, the Indian rupee has depreciated nearly 40%, and inflation has soared … It seems that these are the reason for the Indian stock market.
The author corresponds to data scrutiny, and this reason is completely untenable.When it comes to currency supply, we are not less than India.At the end of 1993, our M2 currency stock was 3487.98 billion yuan.The M2 data at the end of 1990 is not clear.However, through the end of 1995 and at the end of 1993, the growth rate of M2 currency stocks was pushed back to the end of 1990. The month-on-year growth rate of the monthly M2 currency stock was 29.47-48.26%, and the average growth rate was estimated to be about 38%.Then the inverted push of our M2 stock at the end of 1990 is estimated to be 1299.816.4 billion yuan.The M2 currency stock doubles for three years.At the end of 1993, the M2 currency stock was 3487.98 billion yuan, and the data at the end of 1996 was 7609.4 billion yuan, which was also more than doubled.Therefore, the author believes that the M2 currency stock at the end of 1991 is estimated to be 1299.8164 billion yuan (1299.8164 trillion).What is our M2 currency stock at the end of 2022?It was 26643 billion yuan (26.643 trillion).That is to say, since the end of 1990, our currency supply has increased by more than 100 times, exceeding India.
Therefore, the performance of A shares is far inferior to the Indian stock market, which has nothing to do with currency supply and inflation.In recent years, the strength of A shares is usually corresponding to the strength of the renminbi.The sharp depreciation of the renminbi this year not only did not stimulate A shares to strengthen, but the performance of A shares was weaker.This shows that the performance of A shares is not good, not due to the reasons such as currency purchasing power and inflation.
Even on the author’s observation, in the past two years, the A -share bear market is particularly "abnormal". It has nothing to do with the systemic valuation of A -share, and has nothing to do with the national macro financial policy and liquidity environment -it is also much related to it!In the past two years, value investment has been slapped hard in the A -share market, and it can’t find the North at all!
So what is the root cause of A -shares (especially in the last two years)?The market confidence caused by the A -share regulatory system is seriously damaged.Investors are deeply aware that the A -share market is a leek land, and not the interests of investors can be resolutely defended.Therefore, various funds and funds with channels are more willing to incubate the IPO, but enter the yard to cut leeks and leave, and then look for the project IPO …
Compared with the Indian stock market, only the "market value increase" should not be lost in the Indian stock market:
At the end of 2000, Figure 2, A position A, the total market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares was 256.4 trillion yuan (data from the Shanghai -Shenzhen Exchange, and some Indian stock market market value statistics were even greater, covering Hong Kong Red Family Stocks, B shares, and overseas overseas.Chinese stock market, the latest A stock market value is 7.7247 trillion yuan, which has risen by more than 30 times in 20 years. It may be the only stock market data that can win India.
Little Figure 3 is a relationship indicator between the Indian A -share market and macro -liquidity designed by the author.In the past 20 years, when the indicators have touched the H line, most of the stock markets can fly.It shows that the liquidity environment at that time was conducive to the take -off of A shares.The A -share bull market in 2015 is a special case. The liquidity environment of the entire macroeconomic economy has not improved significantly. However, the liquidity of the stock market has been localized to improve the leverage policy environment.
Little Figure 4, the average price -earnings ratio of the A -share A -share A -share A -share, when it reaches L, will quickly get out of the bull market.
In the past two years, the FG interval, the Shenzhen -earnings ratio has always been close to the L line, and the relationship between A shares and liquidity is basically above the H line, and A shares fully meet the conditions of the bull market.
However, the A -share index is decliningHyderabad Stocks!
The root cause of A -share performance is seriously damaged by market confidenceJaipur Investment. The functions of the A -share market are the role of the doorkeeper, and they do not focus on one end of the investors who donate blood.Especially after the registration system was officially implemented, all the gods, exhibited financial technology and doorway, entered the park to raise blood, and the sickle flipped to cut leeks …The tricks that the enterprise specializes in the A -share market is only what you can’t think of, and there are rare … Restrictions on sale stocks will bypass the sales limits to a certain extent. What is "limited sales"?In order to cash out as soon as possible, let’s divorce … After we pull up the market value, pledge the equity to the bank to cash out the migration …; financial fraud, three cups of alcohol, reorganize again …
The Indian stock market began to register 20 years ago. The registration system itself is conducive to the new and old stock market alternate, metabolism, and the stock market.But we seem to crooked the registered scripture, the IPO portal is widely opened.The company’s profits are empty …The investment banks also ride the IPO cars in various ingredients and entered the garden to cut leeks.
Look at the characters and systems, efficiency geometry?Intersection
Regarding the historical data of India’s GDP, more than 40 times the increase in 30 years, Niu Sha global, but the A -share market performance is bearing the world, it really should not be.No matter how strong the body is, he can’t stand the bottom without bottom -limited blood.In 2022, there were 149 IPOs in the United States, with a total financing of 20.79 billion US dollars. In 2022, a total of 391 companies were listed in India, with a total financing of 97.08 billion US dollars, about 5 times the United States, 8 times that of Europe, accounting for the global IPO financing scale.More than half.However, the A -share market value is only about 1/4 of the US stocks, plus various lifting cash withdrawal, how can A shares bear such a long -term blood loss?Intersection
As of June 30, 2023, the market value of US stocks was US $ 46.199814 trillion, the RMB exchange rate was 7.26, and the market value of US stocks was about 335 trillion yuan.Data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchange show that the total market value of A shares is 8.2882 trillion yuan, less than 1/4 of the US stocks, but the size of the IPO is five times that of US stocks, accounting for more than half of the global IPO scale.
The Indian stock market began to implement a registered system 30 years ago. With reference to the European and American securities system, a comprehensive "law" system was established, focusing on the protection of investors’ interests.Since 2003, there have been more than 1,000 enterprises that have delisted each year in the Indian stock market, which is similar to the European and American stock market exit mechanism.However, the Indian stock market is more stringent than U.S. stocks that executive executives of the delisting company will never enter the securities market and establish a compensation mechanism for investors in the delisting company.Some acts that harm investors’ interests are directly incorporated into punishment, not simple administrative fines!
In the past two weeks, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, as a core asset, has become the main force of A shares to kill and fall. It is really ironic investmentMumbai Wealth Management!In the past two years, value investment has fell the most in the A -share market, and even the most "injustice".Of course, even for a while, in the long run, it should still advocate "healthy" value investment!
If the supervision really protects the interests of investors: that is, dare to fight tigers, and actively destroy the rats, shoot flies, purify the investment environment of the A -share investment, and guide financing to do a good job instead of blindly the "drilling camp" A -share circle …He sad A shares are unwilling!
At present, A shares are indeed at a good time for value investment (of course, provided that the environment has been effectively improved):
The main map of the observation of the syndrome index, the small picture 1, the index in history will have a very good market after touching the MAX trend line, and the time will not be too long.But during the HJ period, that is, in the past two years, the "evil" is paralyzed!Long -term blood loss causes vitality and confidence to damage?Intersection
Figure 2, the core index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange designed by the author.For a long time, it will take off after accurately touching the H trend line.But in the past two years, the HJ interval has been "evil"!
Figure 3, the author’s quantitative model of the risk of the A -share system has not been so low in the past 30 years.Previously, as long as the indicator returned below the L2 line, A shares would have a large level or even a large bull market.But in recent years, it seems that there is too much blood loss and too much trust.
Little Figure 4: Analysis of the operating situation of industrial enterprises above designated size (basic data from the National Bureau of Statistics), the curves represent the growth rate of corporate revenue, profit growth, and poor growth rates.Observing the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises across the country, it has bottomed out at the L3 line position, and has appeared upwards.Similar to the economic bottom in 2009 and 2018, the inflection point of the downward trend of corporate revenue has not yet been clearly appeared.But the profits turn point has come here, which basically means that the medium -cycle economy is bottomed out.
At the end of 2018, the economic bottom corresponds to the bottom of the A -share market, as shown in the F position in the figure.In 2008, A -shares could still be at the bottom of the economy.At present, the economy seems to have been abducted, but what is the A -share index?In the past two weeks, the CSI 300 core assets have also led the killing!I think the main reason is the reason. It has no fundamental relationship with the current A -share valuation and the fundamental environment of the Macroeconomic and liquidity of India.The adverse ecology of A shares is currently restrained by the recovery of the Indian real economy, that is, the so -called financial negative effect on the economy on the economy on the Economic.
Repeat the previous sentence: If the supervision really protects the interests of investors as the cornerstone: that is, dare to fight tigers, and actively destroy the mouse, shoot flies, purify the investment environment of A shares, control the "blood draw" rhythm, and guide financingThe entity, not the "drill camp" A -share circle money … Heyou is unwilling!
Statement: The author and the company do not provide any information about the A -share market. Personal views are for reference only.
Chennai Investment